Predictors for subsequent need for immunosuppressive therapy in early Crohn's disease

Background and aims: The clinical course of Crohn's disease (CD) is highly variable with a subgroup of patients developing a progressive disease course necessitating immunosuppressive therapy (IT). However, reliable, stable and non-invasive individual clinical parameters in order to identify patients at risk for undergoing subsequent IT have not been sufficiently established. We therefore aimed to identify such clinical parameters. Methods: A retrospective, multicenter analysis of CD patients from 6 German tertiary IBD centers was performed. Patients were classified into two groups depending on requiring IT or not. Personal data, clinical and laboratory parameters during the first 3. months after CD diagnosis and effects of initial medical therapy were compared between these two groups. Results: In 218 (61.8%) of the 353 patients the CD course necessitated IT. Those patients were significantly younger at symptom onset and diagnosis, and required significantly more often a systemic corticosteroid therapy. Furthermore, significant differences in serological markers of inflammation were observed. Age, gender and the effect of initial steroid therapy were used to develop a prognostic model predicting the individual probability of necessitating IT. Conclusions: The simple clinical items age at diagnosis, gender, and need for systemic steroid therapy can predict a progressive disease course in early CD. Our model based on these parameters allows an individualized estimation of each patient's risk to develop a progressive disease course. Thereby, our model can help in deciding if patients will need immunosuppressive drugs early in the disease course or if a careful watch and wait strategy is justified.